Mu 2023, anthu 153 anamwalira ndi malungo a dengue ku Kerala, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti 32% ya anthu omwe anamwalira ndi dengue ku India ndi omwe anamwalira. Bihar ndi boma lomwe lili ndi chiwerengero chachiwiri cha anthu omwe anamwalira ndi dengue, ndipo anthu 74 okha ndi omwe anamwalira ndi dengue, omwe ndi ochepa kuposa theka la chiwerengero cha Kerala. Chaka chapitacho, katswiri wa zanyengo Roxy Mathew Call, yemwe anali kugwira ntchito yolosera za kufalikira kwa matenda a dengue, adapita kwa mkulu wa zaumoyo komanso waluso ku Kerala kupempha ndalama zothandizira ntchitoyi. Gulu lake ku Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) lapanga chitsanzo chofanana ndi cha Pune. Dr. Khil, katswiri wa zanyengo ku Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), adati, "Izi zipindulitsa kwambiri dipatimenti yazaumoyo ku Kerala chifukwa zithandiza kuyang'anira mosamala komanso kutenga njira zodzitetezera kuti matenda asachitike."
Anangopatsidwa maimelo ovomerezeka a Director of Public Health ndi Wachiwiri kwa Director of Public Health. Ngakhale kuti analandira maimelo ndi mauthenga okumbutsa, palibe deta yomwe inaperekedwa.
Izi zikugwiranso ntchito pa deta ya mvula. "Ndi kuwona koyenera, kulosera koyenera, machenjezo oyenera ndi mfundo zoyenera, miyoyo yambiri ingapulumutsidwe," adatero Dr Cole, yemwe adalandira mphoto ya sayansi yapamwamba kwambiri ku India chaka chino, Mphotho ya Vigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologist Award. Adapereka nkhani yotchedwa 'Climate: What's in the bank' ku Manorama Conclave ku Thiruvananthapuram Lachisanu.
Dr Cole anati chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo, Western Ghats ndi Nyanja ya Arabia mbali zonse ziwiri za Kerala zakhala ngati ziwanda ndi nyanja. "Nyengo sikusintha kokha, ikusintha mwachangu," adatero. Yankho lokhalo, adatero, ndikupanga Kerala yosamalira chilengedwe. "Tiyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri pamlingo wa panchayat. Misewu, masukulu, nyumba, malo ena ndi malo olima ayenera kusinthidwa kuti agwirizane ndi kusintha kwa nyengo," adatero.
Choyamba, iye anati, Kerala iyenera kupanga netiweki yowunikira nyengo yochuluka komanso yothandiza. Pa Julayi 30, tsiku lomwe gombe la Wayanad linagwa, Dipatimenti ya Meteorological Department (IMD) ndi Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) adatulutsa mamapu awiri osiyana oyezera mvula. Malinga ndi mapu a KSDMA, Wayanad idalandira mvula yambiri (yoposa 115mm) ndi mvula yambiri pa Julayi 30, komabe, IMD imapereka mawerengedwe anayi osiyanasiyana a Wayanad: mvula yambiri, mvula yambiri, mvula yochepa komanso mvula yochepa;
Malinga ndi mapu a IMD, madera ambiri ku Thiruvananthapuram ndi Kollam adalandira mvula yochepa kwambiri, koma KSDMA inanena kuti madera awiriwa adalandira mvula yochepa. "Sitingathe kulekerera zimenezo masiku ano. Tiyenera kupanga netiweki yowunikira nyengo ku Kerala kuti timvetse bwino ndikulosera nyengo," adatero Dr. Kohl. "Deta iyi iyenera kupezeka pagulu," adatero.
Ku Kerala kuli sukulu iliyonse yomwe imathamanga makilomita atatu aliwonse. Masukulu amenewa amatha kukhala ndi zida zowongolera nyengo. "Sukulu iliyonse imatha kukhala ndi zida zoyezera mvula ndi ma thermometer kuti ayesere kutentha. Mu 2018, sukulu imodzi idayang'anira kuchuluka kwa mvula ndi madzi mumtsinje wa Meenachil ndipo idapulumutsa mabanja 60 omwe anali pansi pa mtsinjewo poneneratu kusefukira kwa madzi," adatero.
Mofananamo, masukulu akhoza kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ya dzuwa komanso kukhala ndi matanki osungira madzi amvula. "Mwanjira imeneyi, ophunzira sadzangodziwa za kusintha kwa nyengo kokha, komanso adzakonzekera," adatero. Deta yawo idzakhala gawo la netiweki yowunikira.
Komabe, kulosera kusefukira kwa madzi ndi kugumuka kwa nthaka kumafuna mgwirizano ndi mgwirizano wa madipatimenti angapo, monga geology ndi hydrology, kuti apange zitsanzo. "Tikhoza kuchita izi," adatero.
Zaka khumi zilizonse, malo okwana mamita 17 amatayika. Dr. Cole wa ku Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology anati kuchuluka kwa madzi m'nyanja kwakwera ndi mamilimita atatu pachaka kuyambira mu 1980, kapena masentimita atatu pa zaka khumi zilizonse. Iye anati ngakhale kuti zikuwoneka zazing'ono, ngati malo otsetserekawo ali madigiri 0.1 okha, mamita 17 a nthaka adzakokoloka. "Ndi nkhani yakale yomweyi. Pofika chaka cha 2050, kuchuluka kwa madzi m'nyanja kudzakwera ndi mamilimita asanu pachaka," adatero.
Mofananamo, kuyambira mu 1980, chiwerengero cha zivomezi chawonjezeka ndi 50 peresenti ndipo nthawi yake yakhalapo ndi 80 peresenti, adatero. Pa nthawiyi, kuchuluka kwa mvula yambiri kwawonjezeka katatu. Anati pofika chaka cha 2050, mvula idzawonjezeka ndi 10% pa kutentha kulikonse kwa digiri Celsius.
Zotsatira za Kusintha kwa Kagwiritsidwe Ntchito ka Malo Kafukufuku pa Trivandrum's Urban Heat Island (UHI) (mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito pofotokoza madera a m'mizinda kukhala otentha kuposa madera akumidzi) adapeza kuti kutentha m'malo omangidwa kapena m'nkhalango za konkire kumakwera kufika madigiri Celsius 30.82 poyerekeza ndi madigiri Celsius 25.92. mu 1988 - kudumpha kwa pafupifupi madigiri 5 m'zaka 34.
Kafukufuku woperekedwa ndi Dr. Cole adawonetsa kuti m'malo otseguka kutentha kudzakwera kuchoka pa madigiri 25.92 Celsius mu 1988 kufika pa madigiri 26.8 Celsius mu 2022. M'madera okhala ndi zomera, kutentha kunakwera kuchoka pa madigiri 26.61 Celsius kufika pa madigiri 30.82 Celsius mu 2022, kuwonjezeka kwa madigiri 4.21.
Kutentha kwa madzi kunalembedwa pa madigiri Celsius 25.21, kocheperapo pang'ono kuposa madigiri Celsius 25.66 omwe adalembedwa mu 1988, kutentha kunali madigiri Celsius 24.33;
Dr Cole adati kutentha kwambiri komanso kotsika pachilumba chotentha cha likulu la dzikolo kunawonjezekanso pang'onopang'ono panthawiyi. "Kusintha kotereku pakugwiritsa ntchito nthaka kungapangitsenso kuti nthaka ikhale pachiwopsezo cha kugwa kwa nthaka komanso kusefukira kwa madzi," adatero.
Dr Cole anati kuthana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo kumafuna njira ziwiri: kuchepetsa ndi kusintha. "Kuchepetsa kusintha kwa nyengo tsopano kuli kutali ndi zomwe tingathe. Izi ziyenera kuchitika padziko lonse lapansi. Kerala iyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri pakusintha. KSDMA yapeza malo omwe anthu ambiri amakumana nawo. Perekani zida zowongolera nyengo ku gulu lililonse la anthu," adatero.
Nthawi yotumizira: Sep-23-2024